The following is an excerpt from Bloomberg News | September 18, 2016 | Bloomberg.com |
China is seen keeping its deep pockets open in the second half and through 2017, despite having front-loaded spending earlier this year, as fiscal policy takes over from broad monetary easing as the major prop to growth.
The central government’s fiscal deficit will surpass the target of 3 percent of gross domestic product set for 2016, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The broader shortfall that wraps in revenues from land sales, policy banks and other channels will also sink deeper into the red.
Here’s a snapshot of what the survey of 18 economists conducted Sept. 9 to 13 shows.
17 expect this year’s budget deficit will be deeper than the government forecast, with nine forecasting 3.6 to 4 percent and four projecting above 4 percent
16 expect the broader augmented fiscal deficit will be 10 percent of GDP or more
16 expect a higher fiscal deficit next year too, with nine forecasting 3.5 to 3.9 percent, 6 seeing 3.1 to 3.4 percent, and one expecting 4 to 4.5 percent of GDP
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