The following is an excerpt from JOHN KIMELMAN | April 24, 2017 | Barrons.com |
With the results of the first round of France’s presidential election on the books, it seems that one pillar of the U.S. stock market’s wall of worry is crumbling.
Though Marine Le Pen, a market-unfriendly right-wing candidate, made it to the second and final round of voting on May 7, so did Emmanuel Macron, the former investment banker and centrist candidate who stands for market-friendly virtues like globalization and an even more powerful European economic union.
And odds-makers including FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, and the stock market itself, see Macron, who came in first in Sunday’s voting, as a solid favorite to defeat Le Pen in two weeks.
As Silver points out, Le Pen finds herself in a far deeper hole than Trump ever was on the eve of his upset victory over Hillary Clinton.
(Though Silver was among the many handicappers who thought Clinton would win the presidency, he at least did a better job than most in his profession in showing Trump’s last minute strength. He also did a better job of eating humble pie than most. )
Add to that the news about a strong U.S. earnings recovery based on a slew of fresh announcements and it’s a wonder what’s keeping the U.S. stock market from making an assault on the next big milestone, Dow 22,000.
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